Effects of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and their impact on corn production

Authors

  • Alejandro Cruz-González Posgrado en Ingeniería Agrícola y Uso Integral del Agua-Universidad Autónoma Chapingo. Carretera México-Texcoco km 38.5, Chapingo, Estado de México. CP. 56230. Tel. 712 2474131.
  • Ramón Arteaga-Ramírez Posgrado en Ingeniería Agrícola y Uso Integral del Agua-Universidad Autónoma Chapingo. Carretera México-Texcoco km 38.5, Chapingo, Estado de México. CP. 56230. Tel. 712 2474131.
  • Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen Centro Nacional de Investigación Disciplinaria en Relación Agua-Suelo-Planta-Atmósfera-INIFAP. Margen derecha canal Sacramento km 6.5, Zona industrial Gómez Palacio, Durango. CP. 35140. Tel. 871 1590105
  • Héctor Flores-Magdaleno Colegio de Postgraduados-Campus Montecillo. Carretera México-Texcoco km 36.5, Montecillo, Texcoco, Estado de México. CP. 56264.
  • Jesús Soria-Ruiz Laboratorio de Geomática-Sitio Experimental Metepec-INIFAP. Carretera Toluca-Zitácuaro, Zinacantepec, Estado de México. CP. 52176
  • Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas Departamento de Suelos-Universidad Autónoma Chapingo. Carretera México-Texcoco km 36.5, Chapingo, Estado de México. CP. 56230. Tel. 595 9521633.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i3.3379

Keywords:

crop evapotranspiration, CROPWAT, effective precipitation, irrigation requirement, LARS-WG

Abstract

The effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District was evaluated; it is considered one of the most important variables in the management of water resources and the programming of agricultural irrigation. The climate change scenarios were projected using the general circulation model, HadGEM2-ES, with two representative concentration trajectories, 4.5 and 8.5, for two time horizons, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, using the LARS-WG software; subsequently, the ET0 was determined with the Ref-ET program to finally model the effective precipitation, the crop evapotranspiration, and the irrigation requirement for corn crops with the CROPWAT software of FAO. The results show that, during the base period 1985-2020, ET0 ranges from 3.93 to 4.17 mm day-1; RCP 4.5 projects an increase of up to 2.6 and 4.1%, whereas RCP 8.5 an increase of 4.2 and 7.4%, respectively, for both horizons; this increase is reflected on the effective precipitation, crop evapotranspiration, and irrigation requirement towards the four scenarios; the most vulnerable areas are the southeast and northwest. Through the variables analyzed, it was possible to identify that the effective precipitation is not sufficient to meet the evapotranspiration demands of the corn crop, so it is necessary to cover the irrigation requirement with some water input. The data obtained can be used to generate adaptation and mitigation strategies to improve the efficiency of water use in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District and propose agricultural management alternatives.

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References

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Published

2025-05-10

How to Cite

Cruz-González, Alejandro, Ramón Arteaga-Ramírez, Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen, Héctor Flores-Magdaleno, Jesús Soria-Ruiz, and Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas. 2025. “Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration and Their Impact on Corn Production”. Revista Mexicana De Ciencias Agrícolas 16 (3). México, ME:e3379. https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i3.3379.

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 3 (2025)

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Articles

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