Economic physiology of mango: the production function for perennial crops in Sinaloa 2000-2023

Abstract

The study of mango production in Sinaloa (2000-2023) demonstrates that yield is not a contemporary stochastic event, but a trajectory-dependent process defined by the orchard’s inherited physiological state. The evidence indicates that the crop arrives at each cycle with an energy ‘memory’ accumulated from its recent production history, which conditions its capacity to respond to climate, management, and inputs. Modeling using ensemble algorithms enabled classification of the production regimes with 77%-79% accuracy, achieving a statistical robustness of R²= 0.84 by identifying that physiological memory dominates the hierarchy of predictors with a relative weight of 53%. This finding allowed us to reinterpret the variability in production. The drop in yield is not explained by structural failures or extreme climatic events but by physiological depletion accumulated after previous cycles of high biomass extraction. Similarly, years with favorable climatic conditions may not translate into high yields if the tree arrives energetically compromised. An induction ‘sweet point’ was identified, where the maximum yield (7.78 t ha^-1) is only viable under a water stress index between 0.54 and 0.61; outside this threshold, the tree exhibits an inelastic response regardless of its previous load. Based on this logic, operational bioindicators were developed that allow anticipating the crop’s response and differentiating years to intensify production from |those where physiological recovery should be prioritized, optimizing intertemporal decision-making in perennial agricultural systems.