Productive projection of forage corn in Mexico and the state of Veracruz

Abstract

Corn is a crop of great importance in Mexico because it is used for both human and animal consumption, positioning itself as one of the three most important forage crops due to the energy value it contributes to the diets of dairy cattle. The study aimed to examine trends in forage corn production at the national level and in the state of Veracruz from 1980 to 2023 in order to forecast the availability and supply of feed for the livestock sector using predictive models (ARIMA). The information was obtained from the database of the Agrifood Information Consultation System, covering the historical series at the national level and for the state of Veracruz. The exploratory data analysis technique was used to identify trends and seasonalities; subsequently, predictive time series models were built using the ARIMA model, using the RStudio forecast library. The results showed an upward trend in forage corn production. At the national level, forage production under irrigated conditions will present a sustained growth trend; in contrast, under rainfed conditions, unstable variations will be observed over the next decade, with a projected decrease of 1.57%. In the state of Veracruz, projections indicate that corn forage production under irrigated and rainfed conditions will maintain a stable trend over the next decade. Yields per hectare are estimated at 19.57 and 23.87 tonnes, respectively, suggesting productive stability associated with relatively constant edaphoclimatic and management conditions in the region. It is concluded that the use of predictive models is a reliable tool for modeling corn forage production, providing the agricultural and livestock sectors with a planning instrument that contributes to reducing agricultural risks in the short and medium term.