Analysis of the price of the apple using a SARIMA model

Authors

  • Jaime Antonio Ruiz Hernández División de Ciencias Económico Administrativas-Universidad Autónoma Chapingo. Carretera México-Texcoco km 38.5. Chapingo, Estado de México, México. CP. 56230. Tel. 01(595) 9521674
  • Geronimo Barrios Puente División de Ciencias Económico Administrativas-Universidad Autónoma Chapingo. Carretera México-Texcoco km 38.5. Chapingo, Estado de México, México. CP. 56230. Tel. 01(595) 9521674
  • Alma Alicia Gómez Gómez División de Ciencias Económico Administrativas-Universidad Autónoma Chapingo. Carretera México-Texcoco km 38.5. Chapingo, Estado de México, México. CP. 56230. Tel. 01(595) 9521674

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v10i2.509

Keywords:

ARIMA, agricultural prices, planning, prediction, time series, uncertainty

Abstract

The monitoring and prediction of prices is an important tool in decision making in productive activities. Based on the monthly average price data of the red delicious apple at a national level, from January 1998 to July 2017, published by the national system of information and market integration, with the Gretlâ software. The objective of the research was to generate information on the price behavior of the apple by means of a time series analysis, generating a prediction for the following 12 months with a Sarima model . The results indicated that the relative error for the prediction is 2%, which guarantees relatively good forecasts, it was predicted that the price for July 2018 would be $31.99.

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Published

2019-03-22

How to Cite

Ruiz Hernández, Jaime Antonio, Geronimo Barrios Puente, and Alma Alicia Gómez Gómez. 2019. “Analysis of the Price of the Apple Using a SARIMA Model”. Revista Mexicana De Ciencias Agrícolas 10 (2). México, ME:225-37. https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v10i2.509.

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 2 (2019)

Section

Articles

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