Climate change influence on the development of pests and diseases of crops in Sonora
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v0i10.1026Keywords:
Acrobasis nuxvorella, Puccinia triticina, Puccinia striiformis, disease, temperature, wheatAbstract
Warming of the climate system is clear, as shown by the increase in global average temperature of both air and ocean. Particularly, the crops may be favoured by increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide; that help to optimize the photosynthetic process. However, an increase in temperature could also create proper conditions for the development of various pests and diseases. This could affect between 12 and 13% yield in the eight major crops for food and industry, which occupy more than half of the cultivated area in the world. In this study we characterized and quantified the impact of climate change on the favourable conditions for infection diseases such as leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and stripe rust (P. striiformis f. sp. Tritici) in wheat and on the pecan nut casebearer (Acrobasis nuxvorella). The data used were those published by the interdisciplinary group comprising the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory of Climate Central, the California Nevada Applications Program, and the University of Santa Clara in United States of America. The outputs of the years 2020 and 2050 for the general circulation model of the atmosphere known as ECHAM (http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-CCCMA- CGCM3_1-T47-change.html). The 2010 maps were made by staff of SIAFESON, using data from the network of meteorological stations of Sonora (www.agroson.org.mx). The results show an increase of 100% on days with favourable conditions for leaf rust (from 60 to 120 days with favourable conditions). For the stripe rust, the temperature increase makes an unfavourable development. In the case of the pecan nut casebearer, there was an increase in the number of generations (average 5.4 to 6) as a clear consequence of a larger number of heat units.
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