Agricultural cycles analogous to ENSO: prediction of yields of rainfed corn and beans in Mexico

Authors

  • Miguel Ángel González González Pabellón Experimental Field-INIFAP. Aguascalientes-Zacatecas Highway km 32.5, Arteaga Pabellón, Aguascalientes, Mexico. ZC. 20670. Tel. 55.38718700, ext. 82508
  • Arturo Corrales-Suastegui Pabellón Experimental Field-INIFAP. Aguascalientes-Zacatecas Highway km 32.5, Arteaga Pabellón, Aguascalientes, Mexico. ZC. 20670. Tel. 55.38718700, ext. 82508
  • Mario Primitivo Narváez-Mendoza Pabellón Experimental Field-INIFAP. Aguascalientes-Zacatecas Highway km 32.5, Arteaga Pabellón, Aguascalientes, Mexico. ZC. 20670. Tel. 55.38718700, ext. 82508
  • Luis Antonio González-Jasso Pabellón Experimental Field-INIFAP. Aguascalientes-Zacatecas Highway km 32.5, Arteaga Pabellón, Aguascalientes, Mexico. ZC. 20670. Tel. 55.38718700, ext. 82508

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i30.4053

Keywords:

climate teleconnection, crop prediction, historical data

Abstract

The socioeconomic sector is increasingly relying on efficient and accessible tools to predict agri-environmental conditions. This study uses a decision tree classification model to identify agricultural cycles similar to the El Niño Southern Oscillation climate phenomenon. The objective is to historically relate the national agricultural yields of rainfed corn and beans in Mexico with ENSO, through the spring-summer (SS) agricultural censuses of 1980-2014, and to identify the spring-summer cycles analogous to the El Niño Southern Oscillation and subsequently simulate the yields of 2015-2023 (average of analogous years) for both crops. Additionally, the values of the simulations were adjusted using methods such as yield deviation and trend with the Mann-Kendall test of the previous cycle. The results of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) show a good fit for corn (MAPE= 4%) and beans (MAPE= 14%) with the use of deviations; the incorporation of the trend slightly improves the fit in beans (MAPE= 11%), but not in corn (MAPE= 22%). The effectiveness of these methods in forecasting yields months in advance depends mainly on the accuracy of El Niño Southern Oscillation temperature forecasts. This empirical method demonstrates potential to be applied in other rainfed crops and regions influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation; therefore, it offers a valuable tool for anticipating socioeconomic impacts related to this phenomenon.

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Published

2025-10-18

How to Cite

González González, Miguel Ángel, Arturo Corrales-Suastegui, Mario Primitivo Narváez-Mendoza, and Luis Antonio González-Jasso. 2025. “Agricultural Cycles Analogous to ENSO: Prediction of Yields of Rainfed Corn and Beans in Mexico”. Revista Mexicana De Ciencias Agrícolas 16 (30). México, ME:e4053. https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i30.4053.

Issue

No. 30 (2025): Especial

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Articles

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