Effects of climate change on the wine production potential of Baja California, Mexico

Abstract

Baja California has the only portion Mexico with Mediterranean climate, whose main features are rains in winter and hot dry summers. In this region, located in the northwest of the State, higher quality wines are produced in Mexico. It is estimated that 90% of Mexican wines are obtained from fruits produced in about 3 500 hectares of vineyards established in various agricultural valleys. The quality of regional wines is attributed to a large extent, the average temperature of 19.8 °C presented over the period of vine growth (April to October) and the absence of rainfall during the ripening period fruits, which reduces the risk of damaging the fruit by plant pathogens. The favourable temperatures mentioned above may be modified by the anticipated effects of climate change, as has been documented in other wine regions. This would change the production potential of the valley where the wine industry currently develops, which in turn would have a significant impact on the socioeconomic status of the population that depends on this agroindustrial activity. The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of climate change on the production potential of Baja California, including its current wine regions. We worked with the daily data of 55 conventional weather stations managed by the State management of the CNAinB.C.Forthecharacterizationanddefinitionofwine, we used four indices of temperature: development degree days (GDD), free period of frost (PLH), cold hours (CH) and maximum average temperatures (TMM). To simulate the effects of climate change on the production potential of the regions, the Information System Climate Change of the INIFAP was used; which is based on the use of an ensemble model that provides climate values weighted with 10 general circulation models (GCMs). The scenarios obtained can predict that in the future (2051-2060), that in the current wine regions in Baja California, there will be an important accumulation of GDD and TMM increased. Because of this, these regions will no longer have the right to produce high quality wines, unless new cultivars or clones that are adapted to the conditions of higher temperatures are found, new management practices are applied in plant, modifying the design of the vineyards, or adjustments in the process of winemaking. In contrast, due to a decrease in PLH, high regions (> 800 m) adjacent to the mountains of Juárez and San Pedro Martir, as well as parts of the valleys of Ojos Negros and Trinidad have suitable conditions for growing table vine winemaking. Finally it was found that, the region of the coastal strip running from the south of the city of Ensenada to San Vicente, maintained without significant temperature changes its characteristics conducive to growing grapes.