Prediction models of the floral development of the 'Mendez' avocado

Abstract

The availability of prediction models provides an opportunity to forecast important events of avocado flower development. The objective of this research was to develop models of prediction, generation in temperature, floral development in ‛Mendez’ avocado. The investigation was carried out in two commercial orchards of the company Agro Gonzalez in the south of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. In each orchard 10 trees were selected and in each of them 30 shoots were labeled at the beginning of each vegetative flow (FV) of winter (February 2014 and 2015) and summer (August 2014 and 2015). From each marked tree an apical bud was collected monthly or biweekly as the anthesis date approached. With the record of the minimum temperatures (from 8 to 20 °C) the cold days (DF) were calculated and accumulated for each sampling period of years, denominating them accumulated cold days (DFA). Through the regressions, the temperatures associated with the floral development were identified and mathematical prediction models were obtained. Subsequently, the ability to predict the floral development of the best prediction models for all FV in 2014 against the same FV in 2015 and vice versa was evaluated. After verification of the difference between years, a regression model is obtained for each FV by integrating the information of the years into a single data set. The floral development of apical buds of the winter and summer FV was associated with temperatures ≤17 (126 DFA) and ≤15 °C (138 DFA), respectively, and could be modeled mathematically.