Scenarios of how climate change will modify the ‘Hass’ avocado producing areas in Michoacán

Abstract

Since climate is a factor with strong influence on the phenology and physiology of crops, it is a priority to dimension the threat to climate change. There is evidence that such a change in the climate pattern will affect the production of fruit species such as avocado. To study the possible impact of climate change on the main producing region of avocado cv. Hass was the objective of the present work. Different climate databases were collected and were quantified changes of main meteorological variables when comparing the current climatology (1961-2010) and future scenarios, two paths representative concentration [RCP] of greenhouse gases (GEI) (4.5 and 8.5) for climatologies 2030, 2050 and 2070. This allowed to evaluate the impact in some phenological stages of the crop. The changes will be manifested with greater intensity towards the end of the century for the two RCP, with route 8.5 being the one that presents the most outstanding changes, particularly in temperature. This allowed us to identify the impact of climate change on the flowering stage in two climates (warm sub-humid and sub-humid), which will certainly affect the quantity and quality of fruit. The phenology of ‘Hass’ avocado cultivated in Michoacán is vulnerable to climate change due to two threats (increase of maximum temperature and delay of inflection of minimum temperature). The results point towards better future conditions for the cultivation of ‘Hass’ in the semi-warm sub-humid climate.