Statistical forecast of GDDs and CHs for northern Mexico improved for bias correction

Authors

  • Arturo Corrales Suastegui Campo Experimental Pabellón-INIFAP. Pabellón de Arteaga, Aguascalientes, México. CP. 20673. 2Campo Experimental Costa de Hermosillo-INIFAP. 3Campo Experimental Delicias-INIFAP. Delicias, Chihuahua. CP. 33000
  • Miguel Ángel González-González Campo Experimental Pabellón-INIFAP. Pabellón de Arteaga, Aguascalientes, México. CP. 20673
  • Gerardo Martínez-Díaz Campo Experimental Costa de Hermosillo-INIFAP
  • Noé Chávez-Sánchez Campo Experimental Delicias-INIFAP. Delicias, Chihuahua. CP. 33000
  • Luis Antonio González-Jasso Campo Experimental Pabellón-INIFAP. Pabellón de Arteaga, Aguascalientes, México. CP. 20673
  • Mario Primitivo Narváez-Mendoza Campo Experimental Pabellón-INIFAP. Pabellón de Arteaga, Aguascalientes, México. CP. 20673

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i30.4048

Keywords:

analogous years, bias correction, growing degree-days, chilling hours

Abstract

The existing information on monthly climate forecasts of agrometeorological variables, such as growing degree-days and chilling hours, is limited. This work presented the evaluation of a statistical forecast of growing degree-days and chilling hours for northern Mexico, with a focus on grape- and pecan-producing regions. The forecasting model is based on the analogous years method, using sea surface temperature anomalies through the monthly Niño-3.4 index, which is based on the ERSSTv5 database. In addition, it uses monthly historical databases of growing degrees-days and chilling hours, corresponding to the periods 1925-2012 and 1950-2020, respectively. To evaluate the model, monthly retrospective forecasts of growing degree-days and chilling hours were made for a period of 12 years (2012-2023) and contrasted with observations. It was found that the model underestimated up to -100 growing degree-days for regions in the south and center of the country; in contrast, for Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, and Coahuila, the growing degree-days were underestimated with values ranging from -20 to -60 growing degree-days. In the case of chilling hours, it was found that the model underestimated up to 60 chilling hours, mainly in Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Baja California, and the center of the country. Based on these results, a bias correction method was applied, which was based on subtracting the mean bias, to reduce the error in the forecast. The corrected model showed a reduction in bias, mainly in cold months. Nevertheless, persistent bias was found in the model after applying bias correction.

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References

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Published

2025-10-13

How to Cite

Corrales Suastegui, Arturo, Miguel Ángel González-González, Gerardo Martínez-Díaz, Noé Chávez-Sánchez, Luis Antonio González-Jasso, and Mario Primitivo Narváez-Mendoza. 2025. “Statistical Forecast of GDDs and CHs for Northern Mexico Improved for Bias Correction”. Revista Mexicana De Ciencias Agrícolas 16 (30). México, ME:e4048. https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v16i30.4048.

Issue

No. 30 (2025): Especial

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Articles

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