Climate change and potential distribution of lima beans in Mesoamérica and Aridoamérica

Abstract

The objectives of this investigation were to characterize the ecological descriptors and to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the lima bean Phaseolus lunatus L. in the Mesoamerica and Aridoamerica regions. A database of sites of occurrence was integrated taking six sources. From the geographical coordinates of these sites of occurrence and by using geographic information systems, values of agroclimatic variables derived from rasters of the Worldclim, USGS/NASA SRTM and CGIAR systems were extracted. Thus, an agroclimatic data matrix was integrated through which the ecological descriptors of Phaseolus lunatus were determined. The distribution of P. lunatus was modeled with the Maxent model. The results showed that P. lunatus adapts to a wide range of environmental conditions that includes a hydric condition that goes from semi-arid to humid, a thermal condition that ranges from tempered to very warm, and has a presence in the altitudinal, thermal and rain ranges of 0-2 386 masl, 13.2-29.9 °C and 400-4 250 mm, respectively. These descriptors indicate the existence of populations carrying genes resistant to climatic stress conditions. The Maxent model successfully modeled the distribution of Phaseolus lunatus in the different climatic scenarios evaluated (AUC= 0.94). The climate change projected by the HADGEM-ES model for 2050 and 2070 and RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 is unfavorable for the distribution of P. lunatus, while according to the CCMS4 model the climate 2050 and 2070 is favorable on the RCP4.5 route and unfavorable on route RCP8.5.