Applying the model EPIC to assess the impact of climate change and management practices on grain yield in rainfed maize

Abstract

The model EPIC was calibrated and validated for studying the effect of management practices and climate change on the grain yield of rainfed maize for Altos-Sur and Cienega regions of Jalisco. The climate change scenario was used with the pattern of representative concentration (PCR) of 2.6 W/m2, proposed by the IPCC (2013). The calibration and validation of EPIC used the experimental data with maize rainfed cropping systems obtained in the Experimental Center Altos de Jalisco (CECEAJAL) of INIFAP from 1985 to 2013. The information came from the weather station La Barca of the CNA and the agroclimatic station CECEAJAL. The soil data were obtained from profiles INIFAP although for each year and location the results of soil analysis in the Ap layer was used. Climate generator EPIC was used with the values of the basic statistics required of the above stations. Grain yield was simulated every five years up to a period of 100 years, managing nine cropping systems, three for the Altos-Sur region and six for the region, Cienega. Of the latter, two tillage systems and four conventional soil incorporation of crop residues were included, with a high content of organic matter. The results showed that, the grain yield management practice in the Altos-Sur of Jalisco with low planting density region collapses after 2075, while in the high density the yield begins to decline at a later time. For the region Cienega the maize crop residue incorporation has a more stable yield, but after 2075 tends to fade as well.