Using the Newhall model to depict the impacts of climate change on soil moisture in Jalisco, Mexico

Authors

  • Jorge Pedro Topete Ángel Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias (CUCBA)-Universidad de Guadalajara. Carretera a Nogales km 15.5, Predio Las Agujas, Zapopan, Jalisco, México. C. P. 45110. Tel: 10 33 37 77 11 50
  • José Ariel Ruiz Corral Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias (CUCBA)-Universidad de Guadalajara. Carretera a Nogales km 15.5, Predio Las Agujas, Zapopan, Jalisco, México. C. P. 45110. Tel: 10 33 37 77 11 50
  • José Ron Parra Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias (CUCBA)-Universidad de Guadalajara. Carretera a Nogales km 15.5, Predio Las Agujas, Zapopan, Jalisco, México. C. P. 45110. Tel: 10 33 37 77 11 50
  • Diego Raymundo González Eguiarte Centro Universitario de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias (CUCBA)-Universidad de Guadalajara. Carretera a Nogales km 15.5, Predio Las Agujas, Zapopan, Jalisco, México. C. P. 45110. Tel: 10 33 37 77 11 50
  • Gabriela Ramírez Ojeda Campo Experimental Centro-Altos de Jalisco-INIFAP, carretera libre Tepatitlán-Lagos de Moreno km 8. 47600 Tepatitlán, Jalisco, México
  • Noé Durán Puga Unidad Académica de Agricultura. Universidad Autónoma de Nayarit. Carretera Tepic-Compostela, km 9. Xalisco, Nayarit, México. C. P. 63780

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v0i10.1022

Keywords:

climate, soil moisture, soil texture, model Newhall

Abstract

This study aimed to estimate the impacts of climate change for the period 2040-2069 on soil moisture and drought on agricultural land in the State of Jalisco, Mexico, considering three soil textural classes: coarse textured, medium textured and fine textured. To represent the future climate mentioned above, simulated precipitation and temperature from the model MPIM-ECHAM5 GCM downscaled (Delta Method) and emissions scenario A2 greenhouse gas data were used. This information was retrieved from the site Earth System Grid (ESG) of WorldClim shaped grid images, which were converted into raster images with a resolution of 2.5 arcmin. Using the model Newhall these data and climate data for the period 1961-1990 to simulate wet days, dry days and dry half days, and the total number of consecutive wet days during the year was implemented. The results of the simulations of Newhall for both climatic periods were compared by statistical analysis to determine the possible impact of climate change on the availability of soil moisture in agricultural areas of Jalisco. Statistically significant trends (p< 0.05) showed that the temperature and potential evapotranspiration will increase, while the length of the growing season will decrease and this will significant effect on sites of medium texture, followed by fine textured. Other (although not statistically significant) trends identified were that, the average number of wet and dry days will decrease; counterparty, dry days will increase. These results indicate the need to implement adaptation measures focused on the economics of soil water status and soil treatments to improve moisture retention capacity and water harvesting projects in situ.

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Published

2018-03-27

How to Cite

Topete Ángel Jorge Pedro, Ruiz Corral José Ariel, Ron Parra José, González Eguiarte Diego Raymundo, Ramírez Ojeda Gabriela, and Durán Puga Noé. 2018. “Using the Newhall Model to Depict the Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Moisture in Jalisco, Mexico”. Revista Mexicana De Ciencias Agrícolas, no. 10 (March). México, ME:1859-70. https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v0i10.1022.

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